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USD/JPY’s break below 157.70 looks like a genuine repricing story rather than an intervention scare, with BOJ board member Takata‘s call for nimble rather than fixed-pace hikes doing most of the work on the yen side. That sits alongside a dollar that has its own reasons to be soft right now. New York Fed President Williams’s comments earlier this week, framing the Treasury yield surge as a function of economic strength rather than dysfunction and stopping short of committing to a September hike, read as less hawkish than some had wanted, and are likely a contributing factor in the broader dollar pressure feeding into this move. Layered on top of that is the geopolitical picture, where Trump’s private discussions about declaring the Iran war over, alongside CNN’s reporting that the US military escorted 40 vessels and around 18 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, both point toward a potential easing of the oil-driven risk premium if either the rhetoric or the flow data solidifies. Lower oil prices would remove one of the yen’s recent headwinds (energy import costs have been a drag on Japan’s terms of trade), so a genuine de-escalation could compound yen strength further, though for now this remains speculative and payrolls on Friday is the more immediate swing factor for the pair.
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The yen is climbing on genuine BOJ hawkishness rather than intervention, and a softer dollar plus fading oil risk premium could keep pushing USD/JPY lower into payrolls.
Summary:
- USD/JPY has fallen below 157.70, extending a sharp move lower that began overnight during Wednesday’s US session.
- Analysts say the yen’s surge is unlikely to reflect official intervention from Tokyo, pointing instead to a hawkish repricing of domestic BOJ rate expectations, with one strategist citing limited signs dollar/yen could scale a new multi-decade high near term.
- The rally was broad based, with the yen also strengthening against the euro and sterling.
- BOJ board member Hajime Takata said Wednesday the central bank should conduct rate hikes nimbly to counter intensifying inflationary pressures rather than stick to a fixed semiannual pace, remarks Citi described as the strongest messaging yet from the board reintroducing the idea of an expedited hike trajectory.
- A BOJ rate hike this month is now nearly fully priced in by markets.
- Less hawkish comments from New York Fed President John Williams earlier this week, who framed the Treasury yield surge as a product of a strong economy and declined to commit to a September hike, are likely contributing to broader dollar softness feeding into the move.
- Markets are pricing a 61% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, with Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report, forecast at a 56,000 increase following July’s shock 23,000 drop, seen as the key swing factor.
- Separately, Trump is privately discussing declaring the Iran war over, while CNN reported the US military escorted 40 commercial vessels carrying around 18 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, a wartime high; both developments raise the prospect of easing oil prices if the de-escalation trend continues.
- Since the rare joint US-Japan yen buying intervention on July 31, the yen has struggled to find lasting support amid wide interest rate differentials, fiscal concerns and elevated energy prices.
The yen extended its gains on Thursday, pushing USD/JPY below 157.70 and continuing a sharp move that began overnight during Wednesday’s US session. Traders and analysts stopped short of attributing the move to intervention by Japanese authorities, instead pointing to a genuine hawkish repricing of domestic interest rate expectations as the primary driver.
The rally has been broad based, with the yen also strengthening against the euro and sterling, and one strategist noted there is little incentive for the Japanese government to intervene at this stage, citing limited signs that USD/JPY could scale a fresh multi-decade high in the near term. The catalyst was Wednesday’s comments from Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata, who said the central bank should conduct rate hikes nimbly to counter intensifying inflationary pressures rather than adhere to the fixed semiannual pace markets had been anticipating. Citi described the remarks as the strongest messaging yet from the board, saying markets are taking Takata’s comments “more seriously” and that they reintroduce the prospect of an expedited hike trajectory. A BOJ hike this month is now close to fully priced in.
The move lower in USD/JPY has not been driven by yen strength alone. Comments earlier this week from New York Fed President John Williams, who characterised the surge in Treasury yields as a function of a strong US economy rather than market dysfunction and declined to commit to a September rate hike, read as less hawkish than some in the market had wanted, and are likely a contributing factor behind the broader dollar softness now feeding into the pair. That dollar side of the equation will be tested directly on Friday, when US non-farm payrolls data is due. Economists are forecasting a rise of 56,000 jobs, following July’s shock drop of 23,000, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.1%. Markets are currently pricing a 61% chance of a Fed rate hike this month, and analysts suggest it would likely take a much weaker payrolls print to meaningfully dent that pricing, particularly following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, with some noting that supply side factors such as lower immigration and increased retirements could keep printing solid jobs numbers and continue supporting hike expectations.
A further, more speculative layer to the yen’s strength is the shifting picture around the US-Iran conflict, which has been a source of elevated energy costs and import price pressure for Japan throughout the war. Trump is privately discussing with senior aides whether to declare the six month old war over, and has told them he favours the idea, believing continued economic pressure will eventually force Iran’s regime to dismantle its nuclear program or collapse. Separately, CNN reported that the US military escorted 40 commercial vessels carrying around 18 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, a wartime high approaching pre-war flow levels, while intercepting a cruise missile and repelling multiple drone attacks. Should either the political rhetoric or the improving flow data translate into a sustained de-escalation, it would likely ease the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in oil prices, removing one of the cost pressures that has weighed on Japan’s terms of trade and potentially reinforcing the yen’s current strength. For now, however, both threads remain unresolved, with Iran continuing to show no sign of backing down and the US military maintaining an extended, open ended posture across the region.
Since the rare joint US-Japan intervention to support the yen on July 31, the currency has generally struggled to hold gains, weighed down by wide interest rate differentials with the US, fiscal concerns in Japan, and the renewed spike in energy prices tied to the conflict. Thursday’s move suggests that dynamic may be shifting, at least temporarily, as the BOJ hawkish repricing and softer dollar sentiment combine to give the yen its most sustained support in weeks.
Takata got the yen bull ball rolling yesterday, link above.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
