This post was originally published on this site.This week’s hike, the RBNZ’s second straight, was the widely expected part of the decision. The more market-moving element was the tone of the accompanying statement, which investors read as pushing the timing of the next move out to December rather than October. Swaps pricing has shifted accordingly, with only a 31% chance now attached to an October hike versus effective certainty of one by December. That repricing reflects a central bank still committed to further tightening in principle, but signalling it wants more time to assess the impact of the hikes already...

This post was originally published on this site.Market impact: Two independent threads are now pointing at the same underlying risk from different angles. Platts data shows diesel, the fuel underpinning trucking, agriculture and freight, heading into peak seasonal demand with the thinnest supply buffers in years, a cost pressure with a direct mechanical channel into the price of moving and producing goods. Separately, KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk, drawing on ISM manufacturing and services price indexes and the Fed’s own Beige Book, argues that pipeline inflation pressures are resurging rather than fading, with tariff and transportation cost increases increasingly...