This post was originally published on this site.Monday’s closures in Tokyo and the US cash Treasury market mean thinner liquidity across Asia and into the US session, which can exaggerate moves on weekend headlines from Saudi Arabia, Russia and Ukraine. Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand are all open though For oil, the week links directly to inflation: energy has been the main force holding US headline CPI above 3%, so any renewed crude strength from Gulf attacks would feed expectations of further Fed tightening, while the Russian diesel deal and energy ceasefire point the other way for fuel...

This post was originally published on this site.For oil, the two announcements point the same way for diesel: more Russian supply. The deal adds Russian barrels directly, while a halt to Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure would remove a recurring threat to the country’s refining and export capacity, a combination that would weigh on diesel margins if it holds. Traders are likely to discount both until details emerge, as the Kremlin has not publicly confirmed the truce terms and the delivery schedule rests on Trump’s own description. The broader signal is a weaker US commitment to squeezing Russian energy...