This post was originally published on this site.The downgrade signals that Russia cannot redirect its lost European pipeline volumes quickly, which caps a potential source of global supply just as the EU phase-out removes Russian gas from the continent’s mix entirely. Slower Russian LNG growth tightens the outlook for seaborne gas at the margin, supporting competing exporters such as the US and Australia and keeping European buyers dependent on spot cargoes. Together with the earlier cut to oil output forecasts, the revisions point to a weaker Russian energy revenue base. That pressures the budget assumptions and limits Moscow’s ability to...

This post was originally published on this site.The rebound shows how quickly the geopolitical premium returns once peace hopes fade, even with Saudi and Iraqi barrels flowing more freely outside Hormuz. Brent’s return above $100 leaves the front end sensitive to any headline on the blockade or the strait’s reopening terms, with two-way risk elevated. Diesel’s policy-driven swings add a separate layer of volatility to refining margins that crude traders cannot hedge easily. The move in Treasury yields to 5% tightens financial conditions across asset classes, a potential drag on demand expectations that could limit how far crude rallies without...