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Oil recovered from a sharp selloff, but buyers have struggled to hold higher prices. My analysis finds a bearish picture over the next several sessions, while the immediate outlook is much less decisive. Here are the levels and developments that could change the outlook. Let’s jump into my crude oil futures analysis on the daily chart:
WTI crude oil futures are attempting to stabilize after a roughly 17.5% decline from their late-October high, but the rebound has not yet overturned the recent bearish trend. December futures settled Friday, November 6, at $90.83 per barrel. The next meaningful test for buyers lies between $91 and $92.53.
The interesting part is not simply that oil has fallen and bounced. It is that selling pressure appears to be losing some of its effectiveness, but buyers have yet to demonstrate that they can sustain a recovery.
That distinction could become particularly important as traders assess the next developments in the US-Iran conflict and their implications for global oil supply.
Oil’s rebound has a problem: Buyers cannot hold their gains
WTI crude futures fell from approximately $104.99 in late October to $86.65 on November 5, a decline of about 17.5%.
From there, buyers managed to push prices back to $92.53 during Friday’s session. But the recovery lost momentum, with our final market observation at $90.37 at 4:55 p.m. Eastern on November 6. That observation is separate from the day’s official settlement of $90.83.
There is a potentially encouraging development for oil bulls. Recent attempts to push prices lower have not always produced lasting declines. That suggests the earlier selling pressure may be becoming less effective.
However, the opposite is also true. Buying interest has not consistently translated into sustained advances.
A market can stop falling rapidly without immediately becoming bullish.
The difference between a bounce and a genuine recovery is whether buyers can establish and defend higher prices.
Two market scores, two different conclusions
Our assessment of WTI crude futures, based on market evidence through November 6, produces two distinct readings:
Bigger picture: -6 out of 10 (bearish)
Over the recent weeks and looking toward the next several sessions, the market remains clearly tilted toward sellers. The rebound has not repaired the damage caused by the preceding decline.
Short term: -1 out of 10 (nearly balanced)
For the next one or two trading sessions, the evidence is considerably less directional. Buyers and sellers have both shown an ability to interrupt the other’s progress.
The scoring scale runs from -10, representing exceptionally strong bearish pressure, to +10, representing exceptionally strong bullish pressure, with zero indicating a balanced market. These scores are directional assessments, not probabilities or automatic trading signals.
Remeber, oil traders: A market can remain bearish overall while offering a meaningful short-term recovery. The challenge is determining whether that recovery is developing into something more substantial.
WTI crude oil: Three scenarios worth watching
The next sustained move around $90-$92.53 could provide important information about the direction of oil prices.
1. Bullish scenario: A recovery above $92.53 changes the picture
The first encouraging development would be a move above $91.00-$91.32, followed by evidence that prices can remain above this area.
That would indicate that the recovery is gaining some traction.
The more significant test comes at $92.53, Friday’s session high.
A sustained break above that level, particularly if oil can successfully hold it on a subsequent pullback, would strengthen the argument that buyers are regaining control.
If this happens, the next historical price references to monitor are:
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$93.59: The first higher area where the recovery could face another test.
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$95.15: A further upside reference if buying continues.
These are potential reaction levels, not predictions that oil will necessarily reach them.
A failed recovery that sends prices back below $90 would weaken this bullish scenario.
2. Bearish scenario: Failure around $91 puts $89.07 back in focus
The bearish scenario becomes more convincing if oil cannot recover $91 and instead falls back below $90.00-$90.05, remaining beneath that area.
That would suggest buyers are still unable to maintain higher prices.
The next important level would be $89.07, Friday’s trading-session low.
A sustained break beneath $89.07 would increase the possibility of another decline toward the lower historical support area at $87.13-$86.65.
This would reinforce the broader bearish assessment.
Conversely, recovering and holding above the broken levels would weaken the bearish interpretation.
3. Neutral scenario: Oil remains trapped around $90-$91
Not every market needs to produce an immediate directional opportunity.
WTI could continue moving back and forth around $90-$91 without establishing a sustained breakout.
That would be consistent with the nearly balanced short-term score.
In such conditions, isolated moves above resistance or below support can produce misleading signals. Waiting for evidence that prices can hold beyond an important level may provide a clearer picture than reacting to every price fluctuation.
Why geopolitics could overwhelm the technical picture
There is an important fundamental dimension to this oil price outlook.
Much of the recent volatility has been associated with shifting expectations about the US-Iran conflict and the prospects for restoring more reliable oil shipments from the Middle East.
As investingLive recently explained, the possibility of de-escalation has created downward pressure on oil prices, while renewed military action remains a risk.
Reports of tanker attacks have also revived concerns about regional supply disruptions.
This creates two quite different potential drivers of oil prices:
De-escalation and improved supply conditions: Reduced fears of disruption could remove some of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, potentially reinforcing the recent decline.
Renewed conflict or shipping disruptions: An increase in perceived supply risks could support oil prices or produce another sharp recovery, even if the recent technical trend remains bearish.
There are also conventional supply-and-demand considerations.
On November 1, seven OPEC+ producers announced that they would maintain their required production levels for December at September’s levels.
Meanwhile, the latest US Energy Information Administration inventory report, released November 4, showed US commercial crude inventories declining by approximately 0.9 million barrels in the week ending October 30.
The inventory decline is a reminder that a sharp oil selloff does not necessarily mean every indicator of physical supply and demand is weakening.
For the coming week, the next scheduled EIA petroleum inventory release is Thursday, November 12, at noon Eastern, delayed because of the Veterans Day holiday.
What falling oil prices might mean for stocks, inflation and currencies
Even investors who never trade crude oil directly may find the next move informative.
Oil prices influence several important parts of the global economy, but their meaning depends heavily on why prices are changing.
Consider two very different reasons for lower oil prices.
If oil declines because supply disruptions are easing, that could help reduce energy-related inflation pressure and eventually benefit fuel-intensive businesses.
But if oil declines because economic demand is deteriorating, the same price movement could signal a less encouraging outlook for economic activity and corporate earnings.
There is another distinction worth remembering: Lower crude prices do not automatically translate into equally large declines in gasoline or diesel prices.
Refining capacity, fuel inventories and the margins earned by refineries can influence what consumers and businesses actually pay. This is an important theme in investingLive’s recent analysis of oil refining margins and the prospects for normalizing fuel prices.
For energy-company investors, lower crude prices may pressure producers’ revenues and margins, while companies that consume significant amounts of fuel could benefit. The outcome also depends on each company’s cost structure, hedging and broader economic conditions.
For currency traders, changes in oil prices can influence the economic outlook for oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, although exchange rates respond to many other forces as well.
Oil should therefore be treated as a supporting market signal, not a stand-alone forecast for inflation, stocks, bonds or currencies.
What would convince us that oil’s outlook is changing?
For now, the evidence supports a relatively straightforward conclusion.
WTI’s recent-weeks trend remains bearish, but there are signs that the preceding selloff is losing some of its force. The immediate outlook is more balanced, and neither buyers nor sellers have decisively established control.
A sustained recovery above $91.00-$91.32, followed by a convincing move above $92.53, would strengthen the case for higher oil prices.
Conversely, renewed weakness below $90, followed by a sustained break of $89.07, would increase the risk of another move toward $87.13-$86.65.
And if oil continues fluctuating between these areas, the most useful conclusion may simply be that the market has not yet made its next directional decision.
The analysis refers specifically to NYMEX December 2026 WTI crude futures, with market evidence through November 6, 2026. The levels are historical references, not live prices or guaranteed support and resistance. Other futures expiries and oil instruments may trade at different prices.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
