This post was originally published on this site.
Gold price forecast after the Fed: XAUUSD rebound puts bears on notice
By Itai Levitan | investingLive.com | September 17, 2026
Gold’s rebound after the Federal Reserve’s rate hike raises a question for traders: has the initial selloff trapped sellers and opened the door to another leg higher?
In my latest XAUUSD video analysis, I examine an hourly chart showing dip buyers stepping in after a move below the previous low around $4,282. Price subsequently recovered above the hourly 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), supporting an early bullish scenario. However, the potential bull flag still needs an upside breakout.
The Fed raised its target range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16. The focus here is how gold responded to that decision and what would strengthen or weaken the recovery. Federal Reserve statement
Watch the XAUUSD analysis
Watch: XAUUSD analysis after the Fed with Itai Levitan
All chart observations and levels below refer to the snapshot discussed in the video, rather than a live price update. These are XAUUSD spot-gold references, not GC gold-futures levels. Broker quotes can vary.
Why the recovery matters
A break below a previous low can attract fresh selling. If price then quickly recovers, traders who sold the breakdown may find themselves on the wrong side of the move. Their attempts to close positions can help support a rebound.
That is my interpretation of the recovery after gold traded below approximately $4,282. The chart is consistent with a possible bearish trap, although price action alone cannot establish exactly who is trapped or how much short covering has occurred.
The move back above the hourly 20 EMA adds to the constructive picture. This average gives more weight to recent prices and can help gauge short-term momentum. It is supporting evidence, rather than a guarantee that the next move will be higher.
A potential bull flag still needs a breakout
The video highlights a channel with repeated touches along its boundaries. Within the broader recovery, this could develop into a bull flag: a pause or pullback that eventually resolves upward.
For that scenario to strengthen, gold needs to break above the upper channel boundary and show follow-through. A brief move above resistance followed by a return inside the channel would be less convincing.
The distinction matters: a possible continuation pattern is not yet a confirmed breakout.
The pullback area and upside levels to watch
My preference in the video is to consider a retracement rather than chase the rebound. The example identifies approximately $4,323 as an area of interest if price returns there.
These levels describe a conditional scenario. Gold does not have to fall to $4,323, and a touch of that area would not guarantee a successful trade. If price moves higher without the pullback, the example entry may never trigger.
The video also discusses taking another partial profit near intervening highs, without verbally specifying an exact price.
Manage the first target before focusing on the runner
If the pullback entry fills and price subsequently reaches approximately $4,348, the video suggests taking partial profit and considering moving the remaining stop to the entry price.
That reduces the remaining price risk, although spreads, fees and slippage mean an exit at the entry price may not produce a completely flat financial result. It also carries a trade-off: an ordinary pullback could stop out the remainder before a later advance.
If the move continues, further partial exits can bank gains while a smaller position remains open for a possible extension above $4,510.
The transcript does not specify the initial stop price. Accordingly, this article does not turn the example into a fully specified order plan or assign it a verified reward-to-risk ratio. A protective stop must be defined before entering.
What would weaken the bullish case?
Failure to hold the recovery, repeated rejection at the upper channel boundary, or a sustained return below the hourly 20 EMA would weaken the near-term bullish argument. Renewed selling through the roughly $4,282 area would more seriously challenge the idea that the earlier breakdown had trapped sellers.
The practical lesson is to separate the outlook from execution: a constructive chart does not justify chasing price or allowing a losing trade to run indefinitely. Protect capital first, take profits deliberately, and give a smaller remaining position room only while the setup continues to work.
For more perspectives, visit investingLive’s gold and commodities analysis.
More context for gold traders: the Fed, oil and bond yields
To put this XAUUSD setup into a broader market perspective, explore these related investingLive updates:
-
Was the market’s initial reaction justified? Our assessment of the Fed’s hawkishness and possible market overreaction offers another perspective on the policy backdrop to gold’s rebound.
-
Watch the energy side of the inflation story. Read about Saudi crude rerouting via Oman and oil’s retreat from four-month highs for context on a market that can influence inflation expectations and the interest-rate outlook.
-
Follow the reaction beyond gold. Our European stock market update as equities rally and bond yields ease after the Fed hike adds context on investor sentiment and the bond-market moves gold traders should monitor.
Together, these perspectives help readers assess whether gold’s recovery is finding support from broader market developments.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Trade at your own risk.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
