This post was originally published on this site.
If you only got eyes on one asset class this week, there is a good argument that the bond market is one to pay the most attention to.
The Fed’s recent twist and turn, alongside softer US economic data, may have dampened rate hike hopes for a bit. But as the US-Iran conflict continues to extend for longer, the pressure continues to mount on oil prices and the global inflation outlook. And through all the noise, we’re starting to see a potential for a fresh cycle high in Treasury yields this week.
10-year yields are looking to shake off the 4.70% mark to move higher while 30-year yields are clipping back 5.30% to its highest since 2007. Those are not levels to scoff at.
Adam makes a good argument here on how it may impact the stock market through safe money gains essentially. But the short-term and more immediate impact is on borrowing costs, so that’s another key factor to be mindful of.
But whichever way you look at it, there’s definitely negative reverberations for equities and the broader risk mood. So, that is something to consider if yields continue to push up further this week.
At the same time, it’s also another supportive factor for the dollar and one that could invite a push in USD/JPY towards 160 again. In turn, that will open up a whole can of worms if Japan decides to intervene in the market again. So, just be wary of that.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
