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A major-bank strategist calling the correction’s final phase gives dip buyers support, especially alongside the post-midterm seasonal record. Oil is the key link. If Brent and WTI keep falling on demand destruction and new non-Hormuz supply, that would ease inflation pressure and could temper Fed hike expectations, a significant shift from oil as the main inflation risk this year. The flip side is that any renewed escalation in the Middle East would quickly undercut his thesis. His target range near current levels suggests limited further downside in his view, but his warning against timing the bottom points to more volatility first.
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Wilson says the worst of the correction is nearly done, and the next tailwind for stocks could be the oil price that has troubled them all year.
Summary:
- Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson told CNBC that the stock market correction is entering its final phase
- He gave a 7,100 to 7,300 target range for the S&P 500, which he said is already close
- He cited a sharp deterioration in market breadth as evidence of late-stage correction, but warned against timing the bottom
- He said the six to 12 months after midterm elections have historically been very strong
- Brent has fallen 16% and WTI 12% in recent trading, and he expects further falls on demand destruction and new supply away from Hormuz
The stock market correction is entering its final phase, and a significant decline in oil prices could set up a positive backdrop for equities heading into 2027, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer and chief US equity strategist Michael Wilson told CNBC on Tuesday.
Wilson said the S&P 500 has finally begun to catch down to what he called a “pretty devastating correction under the surface”. He was referring to weakness that had already spread across much of the market before it showed up in the headline index. He gave a target range of 7,100 to 7,300 for the index and said it is already close to that zone.
As evidence that the correction is in its late stages, Wilson pointed to a sharp deterioration in market breadth across the whole market. He cautioned, however, that investors should not try to time the exact bottom.
Wilson also highlighted the market’s record after midterm elections, saying the six to 12 months following a midterm have historically been very strong. He urged investors not to second-guess that pattern despite recent volatility.
Oil is central to his view. Brent crude has fallen 16% and WTI 12% in recent trading, and Wilson attributed part of the decline to easing concerns about military conflict, describing it as a potentially very positive driver into 2027.
He expects further falls. Part of the move reflects demand destruction after the price spike, Wilson said, but he also expects a supply response, as energy-insecure countries look for alternatives to relying on oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. That means more drilling and more energy infrastructure, he said, which he sees as a further positive for markets. Wilson said he personally thinks oil will come down quite a bit, for reasons beyond the easing of conflict risk.
For investors, his message was patience. In Wilson’s view, the correction’s final stages, combined with lower energy costs and a supportive post-midterm pattern, set up favourable conditions for equities into 2027.
His comments echo the midterm argument made this week by Morgans’ Jack Stickley, and point to a shift in focus from oil as an inflation risk to oil as a potential tailwind for stocks.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
