investingLive Americas FX news wrap 11 Nov. It’s a Wrap: Dollar climbs as stocks rise and oil fades

This post was originally published on this site.

• Vance considers face-to-face talks with top Iranian security official — WSJ
• U.S. asks Russia for new European security proposal as Ukraine talks regain momentum
• BOE’s Greene: Appropriate to proactively tighten policy against wage risks
• European stocks close higher. AI rebound sends Nasdaq indices sharply higher.
• Iran’s Ghalibaf: Peace is our priority if Washington accepts our conditions
• The broader stock indices are showing signs of life but with work to do. What needs to happen next?
• The USD is making a break for it. What do you need to watch technically?
• Crude oil faces a geopolitical test as Russia signals progress toward peace
• The price of Bitcoin is little changed but off the support target. What next?
• Morning Kickstart: AI stocks rebound as USD after hot CPI. Thank you Veterans for your service
• investingLive European session wrap: Stocks rally, dollar climbs as bond market sits out post-CPI action

It was Veterans Day in the United States, a day to honor and thank those who have served. There were no major U.S. economic releases or scheduled events, and the U.S. bond market was closed. Stocks remained open, and they moved higher.

The dollar also moved sharply higher despite crude oil giving back its earlier gains. With no fresh Treasury-market signal, traders remained focused on the aftermath of yesterday’s inflation report, the outlook for Fed policy, and geopolitical headlines.

Dollar buyers extend their control.

The USD rose against every major currency in the supplied snapshot. Its largest gain came against the Swiss franc, while the Australian dollar held up best. USD gains vs currencies showed:

• CHF: +0.93% at 0.8328.

• JPY: +0.70% at 159.84.

• NZD: +0.66% at 0.5565.

• EUR: +0.63% at 1.1093.

• GBP: +0.46% at 1.3279.

• CAD: +0.40% at 1.4245.

• AUD: +0.22% at 0.6850.

The technical breaks are giving dollar buyers something to lean against. In today’s USD video, I outline the levels defining the bias, risk and targets across the major currency pairs. The next question is whether those breaks can hold.

For USDJPY, yesterday’s move above the 200-day moving average at 158.70 was followed by a break above the 100-day moving average near 159.00 today. With the price trading at 159.84, buyers are looking toward the early September high at 160.368.

The 159.00 level is now a close barometer. Stay above, and buyers retain control. Move back below, and some of the momentum from today’s break starts to fade, with the 200-day moving average at 158.70 the next important test.

USDCHF was the biggest mover, rising 0.93% and approaching a swing area between 0.8341 and 0.8348. That is the next hurdle for buyers.

A break above would open the door toward the September and October highs between 0.8380 and 0.8394. Those highs were the strongest levels going back to May 2025. Sellers have an area to lean against, but a sustained break would give buyers another reason to press higher.

Treasury market takes the day off.

The U.S. cash Treasury market was closed for Veterans Day, leaving no fresh session moves in the 2-, 5-, 10- or 30-year yields. Its reopening will provide an important check on today’s combination of stronger stocks and a stronger dollar.

Stocks rebound, with AI helping the tone.

U.S. stocks traded higher, with technology shares helping lead the recovery. Near closing levels for the major U.S. indices were higher heading into the close shows:

• Dow industrial average: +266.03 points, or +0.51%, at 52,503.26.

• S&P 500: +102.15 points, or +1.36%, at 7,623.08.

• Nasdaq Composite: +414.61 points, or +1.65%, at 25,480.48.

• Russell 2000: +24.26 points, or +0.86%, at 2,845.63.

• Nasdaq 100: +649.39 points, or +2.34%, at 28,390.19.

CoreWeave’s earnings and higher guidance helped improve sentiment toward AI infrastructure. The shares are trading up around 24% near $60.38. Stronger growth gave buyers encouragement, although the company’s financing costs and continuing losses remain part of the story.

For a technical look at Intel, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Apple and Tesla, click here. 

European stocks also finished higher across the board:

• Germany’s DAX: +294.60 points, or +1.12%, at 26,642.06.

• France’s CAC 40: +54.29 points, or +0.66%, at 8,332.88.

• UK FTSE 100: +83.89 points, or +0.78%, at 10,835.48.

• Spain’s Ibex 35: +85.70 points, or +0.43%, at 20,022.10.

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: +191.48 points, or +0.37%, at 51,946.55.

Crude oil’s break higher fails.

Crude oil traded above and below the technical cluster formed by its 100- and 200-day moving averages and the 50% retracement between $86.93 and $87.39.

Buyers tried to take more control, briefly pushing above the 100-hour moving average at $88.26 and reaching a high of $88.74. However, the move could not hold as headlines surrounding the Russia/Ukraine and U.S./Iran wars kept the market moving in both directions.

Russia’s negotiator signaled progress toward peace, although differences remained. Meanwhile, Iran’s Ghalibaf tied renewed negotiations and the reopening of Hormuz to Washington accepting Iran’s conditions. The headlines kept a possible agreement in play without confirming a breakthrough.

Crude is now trading at $86.31, back below the daily moving averages and retracement cluster. That gives sellers the stronger technical hand. The $86.93–$87.39 area becomes resistance again, and buyers need to reclaim it to begin repairing the failed break.

Gold falls below $4,000. Bitcoin rises.

Gold traded near $3,988, down approximately $44, or 1.1%. The decline was consistent with the stronger dollar. With the Treasury market closed, there was no fresh cash-yield move to assess alongside it.

Silver held up better, rising 0.64% to $51.8642. Copper also edged higher, gaining 0.55% to $6.2685.

Bitcoin rose $784, or 1.06%, to $74,482. Its advance alongside stocks was consistent with the improved appetite for risk, even as the dollar strengthened.

Key events and releases for Thursday.

The UK growth figures get the day started, followed by U.S. jobless claims and existing home sales. A busy Fed speaking calendar will keep the policy outlook in focus as Treasury trading resumes after Veterans Day. All times are ET.

• 2:00 AM – UK GDP m/m – Forecast: 0.0% – Previous: +0.1%.

• 2:00 AM – UK preliminary GDP q/q – Forecast: +0.7% – Previous: +0.5%.

• 2:00 AM – UK industrial production m/m – Forecast: −0.4% – Previous: +0.8%.

• 2:00 AM – UK manufacturing production m/m – Forecast: −0.5% – Previous: +1.2%.

• 4:00 AM – ECB Economic Bulletin.

• 8:30 AM – Canada building permits m/m – Forecast: −4.0% – Previous: +8.8%.

• 8:30 AM – U.S. initial jobless claims – Forecast: 194K – Previous: 189K.

• 8:30 AM – Fed’s Hammack speaks.

• 10:00 AM – U.S. existing home sales – Forecast: 3.89M – Previous: 3.99M.

• 10:00 AM – Fed’s Barr speaks.

• 11:15 AM – Fed’s Goolsbee speaks.

• 12:00 PM – U.S. crude oil inventories – Forecast: −0.6M barrels – Previous: −0.9M barrels.

• 12:30 PM – Bundesbank President Nagel speaks.

• 1:01 PM – U.S. 30-year Treasury bond auction.

• 1:10 PM – Fed’s Daly speaks.

• 1:30 PM – Fed’s Schmid speaks.

• 2:00 PM – U.S. federal budget balance – Forecast: −$298.6B – Previous: −$26.9B.

For traders, the question is whether the data and Fed comments reinforce the dollar’s advance. The 30-year auction will also provide a test of demand for longer-term Treasuries as the bond market returns.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.