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Recall that in August 2025, the Trump administration announced an $8.9 billion deal for a 9.9% stake in Intel. The agreement covered up to 433.3 million shares at an announced average price of $20.47, as part of a push to strengthen domestic chip manufacturing and national security.
When Intel reached $142.35 in early July, those 433.3 million shares would have been worth about $61.7 billion. That was a paper gain of roughly $52.8 billion, or 595%, in less than a year. However, share momentum faded, chips got hammered and Intell was one of the stocks which led the decline.
At the current level of $57.70, the same share count implies a value of about $25 billion and a paper gain of roughly $16.1 billion, or 182%. That’s still a sizable gain, but it is. also about $36.7 billion below the peak valuation. Easy come, easy go.
Old resistance gets a test as support
So given the sharp declines from the peak, what are the technicals telling traders at $57.70? More specifically, “Is it time to buy?”
Last week’s selloff took shares of Intel down to $51.50. That was also near the December 2023 swing high at the same level. The stock didn’t get above that old high until January 21, 2026, when it reached $54.47. It then corrected toward $41 before breaking above $54.47 on April 8 2026 and running to $142.35 about three months later.
The swing low from 2023 and the swing high from 2026, makes $51.50–$54.47 the swing area to watch (see the yellow are on the chart above). Sellers pushed below the upper edge last week but ran out of momentum near the lower edge ($51.50). The subsequent bounce back above $54.47 gives buyers a foothold. If the price slips back into the area, $51.50 becomes the key barometer for risk again. Move below it is more bearish, and buyers should get out. Stay above it and the buyers are in play and hoping upside momentum begins again.
What are the upside targets?
So the question traders can ask is what are the upside targets if they buy at the discounted levels?
Looking at the chart:
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$66.21 is the broken 61.8% retracement of the rally from the August 2025 low to the July 2026 high. It’s the first upside target, $8.51 above he current level at $57.70.
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Above that and $80.75 is the 50% midpoint of that same move. Getting and staying above $66.21 would open the door toward that level, $23.05 above $57.70.
What is the risk?
From $57.70, the close risk level is last week’s low at $51.50, a distance of $6.20 per share. Using the round natural support at the $50 level gives the trade more room and puts the distance and risk at $7.70 per share. That’s as much room as I’d give this setup. If the price goes below that level, there could be more trader liquidation.
Using $51.50 as the risk level, the first target offers about 1.4 times the risk. The midpoint offers about 3.7 times the risk, but buyers have to get through $66.21 first.
Is it something you would do? Smart traders look at the risk and evaluated to the return.
Education. Why lean against an old swing high?
When a stock breaks above an old high, traders often watch that same level on a pullback to see whether buyers will defend it. Intel gave us that test near $51.50. The bounce tells us buyers showed up there. A break below last week’s low would take away the reason for leaning against that support in the first place.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
