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Gold futures buyers keep returning near $4,040. Is $4,140 the next test?
Gold’s recovery looks more convincing than Friday’s volatile price action suggests. Buyers have repeatedly defended an important support area, and underlying trading activity points to improving buying effectiveness. But one resistance zone still stands between gold and a potentially larger rebound.
Gold futures are showing signs that buyers may be gaining the upper hand after a volatile week. The recovery from Friday’s low of $4,035.10 is encouraging, but my bullish interpretation goes beyond that single rebound. Several developments suggest that gold may be preparing for another attempt toward $4,135-$4,140, provided buyers can overcome nearby resistance.
Why I see more bullish signs than bearish ones in gold
One price area stands out in my analysis: $4,040-$4,050.
Around $4,040 sits the October 29 point of control (POC), the price at which the greatest amount of trading volume occurred during that session.
That makes it a useful reference for understanding where buyers and sellers previously conducted significant business.
Gold moved above this level on November 4, retested the area and subsequently continued its advance.
The rally eventually carried futures beyond $4,150 on November 5.
What happened next is particularly interesting.
The market retraced sharply, and on Friday, November 6, gold returned to approximately $4,035, briefly moving beneath that important $4,040 reference.
Once again, buyers responded.
Gold recovered toward $4,080, reclaiming both the $4,040 area and the psychologically important $4,050 level.
To me, the repeated response around this price region is a meaningful bullish development. It suggests buyers have been willing to defend an area that previously attracted considerable trading activity.
Of course, support can eventually fail. But until it does, repeated rebounds deserve attention.
What the underlying trading activity tells us
Our deeper examination of Friday’s trading adds another dimension to this interpretation.
The initial recovery attempt was unsuccessful. Sellers returned, and the market struggled to establish upward momentum.
Later, however, conditions improved.
Selling pressure became less effective at producing additional downside progress. Buyers established a higher low and subsequently achieved a stronger recovery.
Trading activity also became concentrated at higher prices during the rebound, suggesting improving buyer participation.
This is the part of the analysis I find especially constructive.
It is one thing for gold to bounce because selling temporarily stops. It is another for buyers to begin achieving progressively better price results.
Friday’s developments showed elements of the latter.
Nevertheless, this remains an early indication rather than proof that sellers have lost control. Gold still needs to demonstrate that it can sustain trading above nearby resistance.
Three technical reasons the recovery may have further to run
Beyond Friday’s buying activity, the broader price structure provides additional support for the bullish argument.
1. The recovery developed from a substantial base
Gold reached $3,879.30 on October 30 before stabilizing over the following sessions.
From October 30 into the beginning of November 4, the market established a foundation for a potential reversal.
The subsequent advance toward $4,155.80 represented a recovery of more than $275 per ounce from that October low.
That is a meaningful move, not merely a minor intraday bounce.
The correction that followed has been substantial, but it has not erased the entire advance.
2. Multiple technical references converge near $4,040
In addition to October 29’s point of control, an October 27 volume-weighted average price (VWAP) reference sits near $4,038.
VWAP measures the average trading price weighted by volume. Historical VWAP references can sometimes become important areas where the market reassesses previous trading activity.
The proximity of these references to Friday’s $4,035.10 low creates an interesting support cluster.
That does not make the cluster unbreakable, but it provides a reason to pay close attention to how gold behaves when returning to this area.
3. Friday’s recovery reclaimed another important reference
Friday’s VWAP was approximately $4,069.
The latest chart snapshot shows gold finishing near $4,080, above that reference and above the $4,050 support region.
For me, that is another encouraging observation.
After a significant intraday decline, recovering above the session’s volume-weighted average suggests that buyers were capable of regaining meaningful ground.
The market did not simply stop falling. It recovered into a more constructive position.
The bigger picture: Three timeframes are beginning to support the recovery
The daily chart shows an emerging reversal attempt following October’s substantial correction.
The four-hour chart shows the first meaningful pullback following the advance toward $4,155.80.
The hourly chart, meanwhile, shows early stabilization and improving short-term momentum.
These developments can coexist without contradiction.
A daily bullish recovery can experience a four-hour correction while the hourly chart begins signaling renewed buying interest.
The important question is whether the shorter-term recovery can develop into another advance on the higher timeframes.
For now, the technical evidence is encouraging but not fully aligned.
What could take gold toward $4,135-$4,140?
Although my interpretation leans bullish, the market still faces an important obstacle.
The immediate resistance area is $4,084-$4,092.
Gold needs to establish sustained trading above this region to strengthen the case that buyers are taking control.
A convincing break would bring $4,098-$4,116 into focus.
Beyond that, I would be watching $4,123-$4,135 and particularly the $4,135-$4,140 resistance area, which I consider a plausible next destination for the recovery.
That would place gold within striking distance of its previous $4,155.80 recovery high.
My view is not that gold must travel to $4,140.
Rather, the repeated defense of lower prices, improving underlying buying activity and broader recovery structure make that an increasingly interesting possibility.
A failure to overcome $4,092 would delay this scenario and could lead to another test of support.
Gold futures tradeCompass: Levels for Monday, November 9
The following conditional tradeCompass map applies to COMEX December 2026 gold futures, based on the November 6 analysis.
Bullish scenario: Above $4,092
Sustained trading above $4,092 would strengthen the recovery outlook.
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First partial-profit target: $4,104
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Second partial-profit target: $4,130
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Third partial-profit target: $4,149
The $4,135-$4,140 resistance region remains an important area to assess between the second and third targets.
A successful retest of former resistance would provide more convincing evidence than a brief move above the threshold.
Bearish scenario: Below $4,050
A sustained decline beneath $4,050 would weaken the immediate bullish case.
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First partial-profit target: $4,039
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Second partial-profit target: $4,007
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Third partial-profit target: $3,992
The $4,038-$4,040 cluster could still attract buying interest, so a break below $4,050 alone would not prove that the entire recovery has failed.
A further decline below Friday’s $4,035.10 low would be more significant, raising the risk of a deeper correction.
Neutral scenario: Between $4,050 and $4,092
Gold remains within a decision area until either side demonstrates more convincing control.
Traders may prefer to monitor price behavior near the boundaries rather than chase a move in the middle.
Partial-profit taking and reducing remaining risk after the first target are possible management considerations. Any stop placement and position size should be determined by the actual instrument, the technical invalidation and the trader’s risk tolerance.
For a fuller explanation, see how traders can use investingLive’s tradeCompass.
My outlook for gold: Bullish, but confirmation still matters
Having examined the underlying trading activity alongside the broader technical structure, I currently see more encouraging bullish signs than bearish ones.
The recovery from the October 30 low was substantial. Friday’s pullback returned to an important support cluster, and buyers responded with renewed strength.
Perhaps most importantly, selling pressure appears to be losing some of its effectiveness.
That leads me to favor the possibility of another recovery attempt, potentially toward $4,135-$4,140.
But there is a difference between having a bullish interpretation and knowing what the market will do next.
If gold cannot overcome $4,092, my expectation needs to be reassessed. If the market subsequently loses $4,050 and breaks below $4,035, the immediate bullish argument becomes substantially weaker.
For now, the evidence suggests buyers are fighting back effectively. The next test is whether they can turn that improvement into sustained progress above resistance.
This analysis reflects COMEX December 2026 gold futures through November 6, 2026, including an intraday trading-activity assessment at 13:53 EST and a later chart snapshot. It is not a live November 9 forecast update. Educational only. Futures trading involves leverage and substantial risk. Trade at your own risk.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
