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Gold held above $4,300 an ounce on Thursday after weaker-than-expected US hiring data and easing Middle East tensions prompted traders to scale back expectations for a September interest-rate increase.
The most-active Comex December contract traded at $4,301 an ounce as of 2:38 p.m. in New York, little changed after Wednesday’s 4% rally and the highest level since June 17. Bullion has climbed about 25% over the past year but remains roughly 23% below its record near $5,600 set in late January.
Progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz has eased inflation concerns by pushing oil prices about 10% lower this week. President Donald Trump said Washington and Iran had held “very good discussions” on a ceasefire and protecting shipping through the waterway.
ADP also reported US private employers added just 44,000 jobs in July, well below expectations of about 70,000, reinforcing expectations the Federal Reserve may have less reason to tighten monetary policy before Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.
Payroll focus
“We remain prepared to raise rates if inflation fails to cool,” Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said Wednesday, warning policymakers may not have the luxury of waiting to return inflation to the central bank’s 2% target.
Gold equities also advanced. Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM; NYSE: AEM) rose 1.26% to $235.17 in Toronto, Newmont (NYSE: NEM) gained 1.09% to $105.38 and Barrick Mining (NYSE: B; TSX: ABX) added 0.63% to $41.33.
The outlook remains mixed despite bullion’s strength. Global gold demand fell to 942 tonnes in the second quarter, the lowest level since late 2021, as investment demand roughly halved and gold-backed exchange-traded funds shed about 45 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Central banks offset some of that weakness by purchasing 289 tonnes, about 1.6 times the year-earlier pace, while Chinese institutional investors continued increasing allocations to gold-backed funds amid volatility in technology stocks.
Silver slipped 0.92% to $61.71 an ounce after climbing above $62 on Wednesday for the first time in seven weeks. The metal remains well below its January record of $121.67.
Friday’s US payrolls report is expected to provide the next major test for bullion. Another weak employment reading would reinforce expectations of easier monetary policy and support gold prices, while a stronger-than-expected result could revive expectations of tighter policy and pressure the metal.
